1111 | Megadeals, Hot Inflation and Squeezed Commodities

Mia: Welcome to the after-market briefing. I'm Mia.

Milo: And I'm Milo. Tonight we're walking through the tape as it closed — indices, earnings, deal flow, and the macro prints that moved things — and we're sticking to what was actually reported, flagging clearly what's fact and what's interpretation.

Mia: Let's start at the top of the tape. US technology stocks rallied on Wednesday, and the Nasdaq 100 was on track to erase its losses since the midterm election. The proximate driver, according to the reporting, was renewed excitement over the AI trade — specifically CoreWeave — luring dip buyers back in.

Milo: That's the interesting part, because the backdrop all week had been exactly the opposite. There's growing unease over the AI trade, and it's testing Wall Street's monthslong habit of bottom-fishing — jumping in every time the market dips. Wednesday was a test of whether that habit still holds, and for one day at least, the buyers showed up.

Mia: And the CoreWeave detail matters. The company beat on revenue and raised its forecast, and CEO Mike Intrator told CNBC he has canceled his planned share sale program. He indicated the company will be fine despite last week's Democratic midterm sweep. So a guidance raise plus an insider signaling confidence — that's a concrete catalyst, not just sentiment.

Milo: Worth separating what we know from what we don't. We know the beat, the raised forecast, the canceled share sale, and the index reaction. We don't know whether dip-buying as a strategy can keep holding if the unease over AI persists. That's the open question, and it's genuinely unresolved.

Mia: There's also a governance wrinkle inside Nvidia that investors were assessing. Shares rebounded, but CEO Jensen Huang is facing scrutiny ahead of earnings after disclosing an affair. Employees described the mood as "sad" when he returned to the office trying to project business as usual. Investors were specifically weighing whether that has spillover effects on Nvidia's business — that's the reported framing. Whether there's any actual business impact is unknown.

Milo: Which ties into Anthropic. Its IPO is said to be multiple times oversubscribed — multiple times the orders for the shares available, per people familiar — as demand accelerates for potentially the biggest first-time share sale ever. And the megadeal context around it: Trump's return to the White House changed the political calculus around mergers and acquisitions, reviving companies' desire for dream deals that had been difficult to pull off.

Milo: Corporate America is now, in the reporting's words, on the clock.

Mia: On the clock is the key phrase — there's a countdown, and nobody knows how long the window stays open. That's the material uncertainty. And the deal bettors themselves are split on the biggest deal on the board: Marvell Technology's plan to double down on AI through a blockbuster $115 billion acquisition of Lumentum Holdings is getting a lukewarm early verdict from investment experts who bet on deals. The odds are described as near a coin flip.

Milo: So we have a frenzy of deal activity alongside real skepticism about specific transactions. And that skepticism isn't limited to odds-making. Look at the pushback cases. H&R Real Estate Investment Trust's $4.7 billion — that's C$6.7 billion — breakup is facing a growing shareholder revolt, with some of the world's biggest pension funds lining up against a deal that would hand a chunk of the Canadian landlord's properties to the family of its chief executive.

Mia: And at Ethan Allen, the CEO is out after four decades. The company named former Neiman Marcus Group executive Stefanie Tsen Ward as interim CEO and expanded its board to nine people with four more directors, after activist investor DGB Investments gained majority control of the board last week. Different mechanism — activist board takeover rather than public pension revolt — but same theme: investors are no longer accepting deal terms and incumbent control by default.

Milo: And then there's the financing side. Credit traders are fuming because an over $1 billion loan aimed at financing Utz's $2.9 billion buyout by Intersnack is already trading at a steep discount — well before the deal's expected close, according to people familiar. When buyout debt trades at a discount before closing, that tells you the credit market has doubts the equity market's enthusiasm doesn't share.

Mia: Which brings us to the macro print that actually rattled people today. October CPI rose more than expected, and Fed's Goolsbee called it "borderline disturbing" as the central bank weighs more hikes. That's the direct quote from a sitting Fed official about a same-day inflation report — that's significant.

Milo: The market transmission was immediate in one place: mortgage rates jumped sharply higher after easing for four straight weeks. The reporting attributes it directly to the hotter-than-expected inflation report. So the bond market repriced, and housing costs moved with it the same day.

Mia: On the December decision, David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research says a 50 basis-point rate hike is on the table but not firmly. That's his read, and it's worth labeling as interpretation — but it aligns with Goolsbee's alarm. And there's a consumer undercurrent: the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor shows retail sales rose at their slowest pace in nearly a year in October, as American consumers showed signs of strain from high prices even while continuing to spend.

Mia: So you have inflation hot, consumers straining, and a Fed weighing more hikes. The next checkpoint is the December meeting — whether it's 25 or 50, and that's genuinely undecided.

Milo: Staying in markets, the commodities story is one of the most striking of the day. Aluminum buyers on the London Metal Exchange are facing the most severe squeeze in decades. Inventories backing the contracts are plunging, and much of the remaining stock is under the control of just two traders. That's a structural description of the market, not a price forecast — but a decades-severe squeeze is a material fact for anyone with aluminum exposure.

Mia: And there's a parallel story in uranium. The nuclear power boom is prompting CME Group to move ahead with a new futures contract backed by physical supplies of uranium — a key fuel source. The transmission channel there is indirect; it's an exchange launching a product because underlying demand is tightening. And in Canadian heavy crude: it has strengthened from the weakest in eight years as the surge in tanker rates subsides and oil prices drop.

Mia: So a rebound in a specific crude benchmark, driven by a reversal in freight costs. That's a reported move with a stated cause.

Milo: Now to Latin America, where the biggest market event is Brazil. The rout in Brazilian assets sparked by Lula da Silva's re-election shows little sign of abating. Some of the nation's biggest money managers say a downturn that has already wiped out months of gains could get even worse. That's funds actively warning the market — that's a direct statement about direction and persistence.

Mia: And Brazil's resource politics radiate outward. Brazil's energy minister will visit Venezuela before the end of the year to discuss opportunities in the oil sector — potentially a new chapter after years of strained relations. Meanwhile in Chile, a debate is heating up after Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz left the door open to private investment in Codelco, the state copper giant — long a taboo topic for the state-owned miner.

Mia: And separately, truckers and regional buses protesting fuel prices and roadway tolls were snarling traffic across Chile on Wednesday, threatening exports of fresh produce at the start of the agricultural season. Those are country-risk factors with real supply-chain transmission.

Milo: One more cross-border flow: at least 120,000 tons of French wheat was booked for China last week, per people familiar — a major buyer snapping up grain after a slump in global prices. Demand responding to price, which is what you'd expect in a functioning market.

Mia: Now Washington. Election Day results are reshaping leadership: Jim Jordan was elected in the House and John Thune in the Senate as GOP leaders. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced the day after Election Day he would not run for minority leader in the 120th Congress.

Milo: And on the Democratic side, with Democrats taking control of Congress in the new year, Representative Chris Deluzio of Pennsylvania's 17th District — who sits on the House Armed Services Committee — said the failed impeachment effort of Pete Hegseth "shouldn't be the end of the oversight" over the defense secretary. He said holding the Trump administration accountable is just one part of the "bold action" voters are asking for.

Mia: The market-relevant transmission here is deal flow. Anita Antenucci, founder and managing partner at 3Wire Partners, told Bloomberg's Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Deals" to anticipate some defense deals pausing after Congressional control switched to Democrats. That's a specialist's expectation, so label it interpretation — but it connects directly to the M&A countdown we discussed earlier.

Mia: There's also a specific vector: the administration had established some form of equity position in 41 companies as of November, according to the CATO Institute's tally, and Democrats could snarl those stakes in private sector companies. Both are watch-items for the new year.

Milo: On the geopolitical front, Ukraine. President Zelenskyy warned Tuesday that his country "was not real estate," as a second and final day of US-brokered peace talks got underway. Experts say a Russia peace deal remains elusive. That's the state of play — talks happened, no resolution signaled.

Mia: And security flashpoints with economic edges: Treasury Secretary Bessent has moved to a military base amid "growing threats" from Iran, per the New York Times — his role leading Operation Economic Outcast has made him one of the administration's top targets of Iranian threats. Hundreds of schools across Italy and the UK were evacuated Wednesday over "hoax" bomb threats, amid growing worries of hybrid threats.

Mia: And in Spain, workers were expected to turn out in their millions Wednesday for the country's first general strike in 14 years, with protestors clashing with police ahead of the election campaign. And Venezuela's continuing blackouts — especially in the Andean states — are disrupting daily life, feeding protests, and opening a new front for the government of Delcy Rodríguez.

Mia: None of these had a demonstrated same-session market move in the reporting, so we flag them as risk context, not catalysts.

Milo: Let's close with the risk-and-cost cluster, because there's a common thread about who pays for risk. In California, the newly elected insurance commissioner — a protégée of Bernie Sanders — is promising sweeping changes to the state's $3 trillion home and auto insurance market as climate-fueled wildfires drive up costs and private insurers flee. Her framing: insurance should fund wildfire safety, not Super Bowl ads.

Mia: Adjacent to that, Marsh & McLennan is lobbying US regulators to allow banks to hold less capital against loans covered by credit risk insurance — as they look for new ways to offload data center exposure. Note the AI connection: banks are actively seeking to shift risk off their books on data-center lending. That's a real signal about where institutions perceive concentration.

Milo: On climate policy, John Kerry, the 68th US Secretary of State, discussed clean energy affordability, global climate progress and US leadership with Bloomberg's Aaron Rutkoff at Bloomberg Green at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye. And on public health, a new Johns Hopkins tool estimates the 2025 US measles outbreak carried an economic cost of more than $37 million — a concrete number for what outbreaks actually cost.

Mia: Corporate items and quick hits to round out: Virgin Atlantic is cutting winter capacity on higher oil costs and softened demand. JetBlue unveils new first class seats Wednesday as part of a profit push. Crunch Fitness is seeking about $800 million from a bond sale backed by franchise revenue, part of a string of whole-business securitizations in recent weeks.

Mia: Nissan cut its annual sales forecast for a second time in months on intensifying competition in China, with its CEO outlining a plan to fight back. India overhauled its visa rules to draw more tourists, students, medical travelers, and business visits.

Milo: A few more: the CFTC is investigating whether Kalshi improperly self-certified event contracts — news of the probe comes after the CFTC ordered Kalshi to take down sports-related "mention markets" back in August. And its rival Polymarket laid off staff and severed ties with a number of contractors as part of a broader recovery effort after stumbles left it lagging. In venture, the 81 Collection, a Chicago firm and backer of Colossal Biosciences, raised $82 million for its second fund.

Milo: And Ethan Allen interim CEO news we covered earlier. A note on process: Saudi Arabia saw one of its first major private credit deals since the regional war began, with Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Fortress among the heavyweights teaming up.

Mia: So the summary picture as we close: a hot CPI that spooked the Fed and lifted mortgage rates; tech and the Nasdaq 100 rallying on CoreWeave's beat despite AI unease; Anthropic's potentially record IPO oversubscribed amid a megadeal rush with a ticking clock; investor revolts and cracking buyout financing pushing back on deal terms; a decades-severe aluminum squeeze; and a Brazil rout funds say isn't over.

Milo: What to watch next: the Fed's December decision and its size, whether dip-buying holds through the AI unease, Anthropic's pricing and debut, the H&R and Ethan Allen situations, and how the new Congress treats defense deal flow and the administration's 41 company stakes. We've distinguished facts from interpretation throughout, and we'll flag the unknowns as they resolve.

Mia: Thanks for listening — that's the briefing.