1110 | Inflation Shock, Anthropic's Mega IPO, and a Rough Week for Nvidia

Mia: Good evening, and welcome to the after-market briefing. I'm Mia.

Milo: And I'm Milo. It was an inflation day, plain and simple, and nearly everything on the tape tonight traces back to one hotter-than-expected CPI print and what it did to rate expectations. So we'll start there, then work through Anthropic's IPO, Nvidia, credit markets, and the rest of what actually moved.

Mia: Let's get into it. October CPI rose 0.4% — a bit slower than September, but economists called it uncomfortably high, and the drivers were food, gas, and electricity. Pimco's Tiffany Wilding pointed out companies are passing higher energy costs along to consumers.

Milo: And markets reacted hard. US equities slid because the print bolstered the case for a December Fed hike. The dollar had its strongest day since September on those rate-hike bets. The 10-year Treasury yield raced back up to 5%.

Mia: And the bond move was genuinely violent — short-term yields surged the most in 19 months, which is the biggest spike since the tariff meltdown, after Fed officials warned the bank may need to raise rates more aggressively.

Milo: So now the debate: how big is the December move? Carlyle's Jason Thomas laid out the case that the Fed might go 50 basis points. JPMorgan's David Kelly is on the other side, arguing a half-point hike isn't needed. That's a real disagreement about interpretation, not fact.

Mia: Right — the facts are the print, the yields, the dollar, the equity slide. The 50-versus-25 call is opinion. The uncertainty is whether energy-driven inflation persists, because if October's spike was mostly fuel and groceries passing through, the picture could look different next month.

Milo: One international echo worth flagging: Chilean pension funds actually saw their losses on foreign interest-rate swaps narrow in October as US Treasuries rallied. That's an older Treasury rally, not today's selloff — a reminder these yields cut both ways for global holders.

Mia: From rates to the biggest equity event on the calendar. Anthropic is targeting a valuation of about $1.4 trillion in its IPO — aiming to be the first frontier AI lab to go public.

Milo: The mechanics: price range of $70 to $78, pricing on Wednesday, November 18, trading the following day. And it comes roughly five months after Elon Musk took SpaceX public in a record offering.

Mia: What supports that valuation? Goldman Sachs analysts are modeling Anthropic revenue around $685 billion by the end of the decade. That's a model, an estimate — not a reported number.

Milo: Worth noting retail investors could have bought exposure earlier through other channels; this listing just formalizes it. And the open question hanging over this deal is AI-sector financing — which brings us straight to CoreWeave.

Mia: CoreWeave reports earnings after the bell tonight, and that's the near-term test. Its earnings could either calm fears about its debt-fueled AI build-out or stoke more of them.

Milo: So if you're watching AI names this week, CoreWeave's numbers and any commentary on its debt are the thing — it feeds directly into sentiment around the Anthropic pricing tomorrow.

Mia: Then there's Nvidia, which managed a strange day. Allegations surfaced about CEO Jensen Huang's affair with an alleged Chinese spy, and Representative John Moolenaar, the chair of the Select Committee on China, is demanding answers about the relationship.

Milo: The reason it matters beyond the personal: the allegations have brought new attention to Huang's potential influence over US policy on chip sales to China. That's on top of Nvidia's existing China problem.

Mia: But here's the counterintuitive part — chip stocks rallied amid the scandal. It's the old 'markets bottom on bad news' maxim ringing true.

Milo: So the facts are the allegations, the congressman's demand, and the chip rally. The interpretation — that the market is choosing to look through it — is just that, interpretation. Watch for whether Moolenaar's committee actually extracts answers.

Mia: Regulation next, and the SEC is shrinking its footprint on two fronts. First, the forthcoming executive compensation proposal — a senior official described it as a 'major Ozempic diet' for required disclosures. Meaning pay disclosure requirements may shrink considerably.

Milo: Second, enforcement: cases dropped about 25% in the first full fiscal year since Trump returned to the White House, part of what the agency calls a 'return to basics.' For public companies, that's a lighter disclosure and enforcement regime — an interpretation, but the numbers themselves are reported.

Mia: Credit markets were busy tonight. Fox Corporation is raising $8.4 billion in an investment-grade bond sale to refinance its acquisition of Roku — strong demand for that one.

Milo: Peloton drew $6.8 billion in demand for its debut junk-bond sale — enough that it boosted the deal size and slashed borrowing costs.

Mia: Pizza Hut is looking to sell about $1 billion of bonds backed by its franchise agreements and related fees, to fund its buyout by LongRange Capital.

Milo: And the contrast: iHeartMedia. Its debt plunged to record lows and shares sank 67% after its latest earnings projections fell far short of analyst estimates. Same market, very different receptions — strong demand for solid credits, brutal repricing for a miss.

Mia: Private equity had a quiet but interesting day. Clearlake Capital is exploring a sale of packaging firm IPG that could fetch more than $3.5 billion, per people familiar.

Milo: Meanwhile GFL Environmental rejected buyout proposals — including interest from Blackstone and Brookfield — and will stay public, ending a months-long process.

Mia: And Bridgepoint is going the other way: it sees opportunity in 're-rated' real estate, in overlooked corners of the property market, precisely because higher rates are chasing other investors out.

Mia: Geopolitics with market transmission now. Saudi Arabia is grappling with renewed liquidity pressure as the Iran war spurs a pullback in deposits from the government and banks in the United Arab Emirates.

Milo: In Europe, the European Commission and some member states are stepping up efforts for more joint borrowing to finance Ukraine. The sticking point: greater use of Russia's frozen central-bank assets remains bogged down by Belgium.

Mia: And in Brazil, the real sank Tuesday, nearing its post-vote low — levels seen after Lula's surprise re-election — because traders saw few signs the central bank will hike even amid mounting inflation pressure. The dovish central-bank minutes did the damage.

Milo: There's also a related Brazil credit story: FIDCs — those receivables funds — are growing amid rising credit defaults, raising transparency concerns. Same jurisdiction, same underlying theme of stress.

Mia: One more geopolitical item without a clean market move: France blamed Iran's Revolutionary Guard cyber unit for an 'unprecedented campaign' of cyberattacks on supermarket refrigerators, causing millions of euros in damage, and is weighing sanctions.

Mia: Commodities, where the inflation story loops back. Corn surged the most in three months after the USDA surprised traders with a bigger-than-expected cut to US yield and production.

Milo: Russia shipped less crude, with loadings halted at the Pacific port of Kozmino.

Mia: The US raised its 2027 forecasts for gasoline and diesel prices — signaling limited consumer relief even as oil flows pick up from the Middle East. Though in the near term, US gas prices fell below $4 for the first time since July.

Milo: And a supply-side warning: South Africa flagged rising foot-and-mouth cases in wildlife, with cattle farmers already reeling from one of the worst outbreaks in the nation's history. Watch agricultural and protein supply chains there.

Mia: Households now — and this connects directly back to the inflation print we opened with. Credit card debt hit a record $1.29 trillion, per New York Fed research, as high prices strain household budgets and consumers lean on cards to make ends meet.

Milo: Layered on that: AI fears and a lackluster job market are fueling layoff worries — even among people doing their jobs well. That anxiety itself is a demand-side factor worth monitoring.

Mia: One practical note for job seekers: former Google recruiter Farah Sharghi says most people answer 'tell me about yourself' all wrong, and her advice covers turning coffee chats into real introductions and interviews. Lighter material, but useful.

Milo: Rapid fire on companies and consumers, Mia. Take it.

Mia: Rivian's CEO RJ Scaringe calls 2027 an 'inflection year' as the EV maker scales its R2 SUV and invests in autonomy — and the company marked five years since its IPO.

Milo: Amazon's Ring unveiled a $250 flying drone that moves room to room to investigate suspicious activity and captures footage at night, plus a robot to patrol homes and businesses.

Mia: Bilt is expanding beyond residential rewards, launching two new platforms to help local businesses and event venues build loyalty, and it's betting on major sports franchises too.

Milo: Polymarket says its annualized revenue has topped $1.8 billion, a current run-rate driven by growth of its US exchange.

Mia: And a tax note: the IRS announced higher long-term capital gains brackets for 2027 — some investors will still owe 0% depending on income.

Milo: Health brief, quickly. The FDA is warning of a potential increased risk of a rare eye condition linked to vision loss in GLP-1 drugs — Wegovy, Zepbound, the weight-management and diabetes class. The strength of the link is still an open question.

Mia: Global notes to round out. The Bank of Canada said the uncertainties from higher oil prices and the ongoing trade war with the US won't necessarily stop it from hiking rates. Sound familiar? It's the same rate-hike debate we started with.

Milo: Centalion is starting a Nordic power trading desk, as the region's low electricity prices spur growing data-center demand. Energy and AI infrastructure converging again.

Mia: And Washington, briefly. Pete Hegseth decried an impeachment push led by GOP Representative Thomas Massie, who has clashed with President Trump, defending his handling of the Iran war — days after a blue-wave midterm election.

Milo: Separately, the House Oversight committee is calling on the DOJ to interview key Epstein witnesses. Chairman James Comer said the federal government has 'failed' the survivors of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell's crimes for decades.

Mia: So, the through-line for tomorrow: the CPI print has repriced the December meeting — 25 or 50 basis points is the live debate — and everything from Anthropic's pricing Wednesday night to CoreWeave's after-hours numbers now trades in that steeper-rate environment.

Milo: That's the briefing. We'll be back tomorrow with the tape. Thanks for listening.