0818 | 30-Year Yield Hits 19-Year High, Energy Stocks Near Records, Home Depot Beats

Mia: Welcome back to After Market on Bri Radio. I'm Mia, and I'm joined by Milo.

Milo: Hey Mia, good to be here. We've got a lot to unpack today — from the bond market hitting some serious milestones to energy stocks back near their highs.

Mia: That's right. We're also watching the home improvement space, with Home Depot's latest quarterly report in focus, plus a big move from online used-car dealer Carvana.

Milo: All stories worth the time today. Let's dig in.

Mia: Long-dated U.S. government bond yields are sitting at multi-year highs, with the 30-year Treasury topping 5.33 percent — a new 19-year high — on inflation and spending worries amid what one report described as a worsening U.S. fiscal situation. A deepening global bond selloff also sent the 10-year benchmark to its highest level since early 2025, as thin August trading met investors wary of inflation and a heavy wave of corporate debt supply. The reports frame this as more than a rate story: analysis says the bond market pressure is squeezing Main Street while Wall Street waits on Warsh, and that climbing yields carry implications for mortgages and other consumer borrowing. The cited pressures — inflation, U.S. fiscal concerns, heavy corporate debt supply, and lighter August liquidity — are reported catalysts rather than confirmed causes, and the supplied pieces include no direct equity-market reaction to the move. What to watch next, per the reports: whether longer-dated yields extend the climb, the pace of corporate debt supply, and the Warsh news flow Wall Street is awaiting.

Milo: Wow, 19 years. That really puts it in perspective. And what's driving this? The reports point to persistent inflation and growing worries about the U.S. fiscal situation — essentially a worsening picture for government finances on top of inflation that just keeps running hot.

Mia: And there's more. Bloomberg is reporting that a deepening global bond selloff has pushed the 10-year U.S. benchmark yield to its highest level since early 2025. August trading tends to be thin, and that lighter liquidity is meeting investors who are wary about inflation and bracing for a big wave of corporate debt supply.

Milo: Right, so we've got supply coming at the market at the same time investors are getting pickier. That combination is a recipe for higher yields.

Mia: Exactly. And the reports frame this as more than just a rates story. There's analysis out there saying government debt yields are surging at a rough time — with that pressure squeezing Main Street while Wall Street waits on Kevin Warsh.

Milo: And the implications for regular folks are pretty direct. Climbing yields feed into mortgages and other consumer borrowing costs.

Mia: Right. So what should we be watching next? The reports say to keep an eye on whether longer-dated yields extend this climb, the pace of corporate debt supply coming down the pipe, and of course that Warsh news flow Wall Street is eagerly awaiting.

Mia: Energy stocks are closing in on the record levels they hit earlier this year amid the Middle East conflict, as investors see diminishing prospects for a near-term ceasefire that could ease the standoff in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, according to Bloomberg Markets. The report's headline characterizes the session as energy stocks soaring to a record as oil rises on Trump's hard line. In separate reporting, Trump insists the U.S., not Iran, is in control of the strait, even though transiting vessels continue to come under attack and few attempt the crossing; he says no talks are scheduled with Iran as he teases action in the strait. Separately, Russia's oil exports have extended their slump amid Ukrainian drone strikes, with shipments falling for a fifth week and no crude loading from the key Novorossiysk oil terminal in the seven days to Aug. 16. The open questions are whether the Hormuz standoff eases and whether the Novorossiysk loading halt continues. Watch for any U.S. action telegraphed on the strait, any shift in the no-talks picture with Iran, and whether Russian crude loadings resume.

Milo: And what's fueling that run? Bloomberg Market's headline puts it bluntly — energy stocks soaring to a record as oil rises on Trump's hard line. Investors are seeing diminishing prospects for a near-term ceasefire that could ease the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz.

Mia: That strait is crucial — it's a key chokepoint for global oil shipments. And separately, Trump insists the U.S., not Iran, is in control of the strait. But here's the catch — transiting vessels continue to come under attack, and few are even attempting the crossing these days.

Milo: And on the diplomatic front?

Mia: He says no talks are scheduled with Iran, while teasing possible action in the strait. So there's a lot of uncertainty hanging over that waterway.

Milo: And it's not just the Middle East story driving supply concerns. Bloomberg is also reporting that Russia's oil exports have extended their slump amid Ukrainian drone strikes. Shipments fell for a fifth straight week, with no crude loading at all from the key Novorossiysk oil terminal in the seven days through August 16th.

Mia: So you've got two major supply questions colliding. The big watch items are whether the Hormuz standoff eases, whether that Novorossiysk loading halt keeps going, and any U.S. action telegraphed in the strait — plus any shift in that no-talks picture with Iran.

Mia: Home Depot reported fiscal second-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines, and the company reaffirmed its guidance amid what it called frozen housing market conditions. A separate analyst note said Home Depot reported a very good quarter, executing well on things it can control and making the best of a terrible hand; that note upgraded the stock and raised its price target. Separately, Bloomberg reported that pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in July to the weakest level since the start of the year, with Bloomberg Intelligence's Drew Reading commenting on the data.

Milo: Frozen is a strong word. And yet they still beat expectations — that's notable.

Mia: It really is. One analyst note I saw called it a very good quarter — saying Home Depot executed well on the things it can control and made the best of a terrible hand. That note went a step further, upgrading the stock and raising its price target.

Milo: And separately, there's more fresh data on the housing picture. Bloomberg is reporting that pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in July to their weakest level since the start of the year. Bloomberg Intelligence's Drew Reading weighed in on those numbers.

Mia: So you've got an interesting snapshot here — the home improvement giant holding up despite a sluggish housing environment, while the underlying sales data still points to a market that hasn't found its footing.

Milo: Shares of online used-car dealer Carvana Co. were extending losses, according to Bloomberg Markets, hurt by investor concern that one of the company's largest investors, billionaire Mark Walter, may sell down his stake as he contends with a federal probe of his investment empire. No decline magnitude is specified, and the move is tied to suspected selling pressure rather than a confirmed or announced share sale. The key uncertainty is whether Walter actually reduces his stake and how the federal probe develops.

Mia: What's spooking investors?

Milo: Concern that one of the company's largest investors — the billionaire Mark Walter — may sell down his stake. That's because Walter is contending with a federal probe into his investment empire, and investors are worried that pressure could push him to unload shares.

Mia: Right, and it's worth noting the move is tied to suspected selling pressure rather than any confirmed or announced sale. We don't know the decline magnitude either.

Milo: Exactly. So the key uncertainty here is really whether Walter actually reduces his stake, and how that federal probe develops. Those are the two things that'll determine where this stock goes from here.

Mia: Well, that wraps up today's conversation. Thanks so much for listening, and we'll catch you next time.